The question of fuel deposits, which has to be replenished regularly, remains. 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It responded with an unprecedented wave of . Australia has been warned to expect a Chinese "strategic surprise" in 2022. Australia has no political leader capable of seeing the futility of following the US line in Asia. Returning to Senator Lambie, and her comment about the Chinese invasion of Australia,[1] it can be safely assumed that what Lambie is actually referring to is contained in a broad military context: an air- and sea-borne attack culminating in a boots-on-the-ground, physical armed presence not dissimilar to the one taking in place in Ukraine by Russian forces in recent times; the Argentinian invasion of the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas in the early 1980s; and the United States invasion of Iraq in 2003. [8] Gabriel Kolko. Maybe her comment was not as stupid as everybody thought at the time. Reported suspensions would cut Australian exports by up to $6 billion. !! God help our descendents. "China need not attempt to invade Australia to subdue it," Mr Shugart warns. Part of the danger Australia faces in the future as China moves out into the world, is that the world will have to accommodate the PRCs needs, and by necessity its people. Long March Out of China. The Australian, Melbourne: Murdoch Media, 19 August, 2014, 9. What is happening in China, and has been exponentially expanding in the past decade, is the PRC has set about accomplishing exactly what the West has done for centuries: developing a strong middle-class. There is a comment that I would like to make and that is the article that I have written from my perspective is grounded in what Prof Peter Singer called where the evidence takes me. I would prefer my article to have a different outcome than a limited invasion of Australia, however as far as my research takes me (and there is more to come) it is based on the British and US model of China exerting its power-base through global military preponderance, especially when it has a comprehensive blue-water navy. Australia has fallen out with China in recent years over significant geopolitical issues, including Beijing's territorial ambitions in the South China Sea and the COVID-19 pandemic. The Chinese are already quietly invading us in droves, buying up huge amounts of property and investment. I just wonder why the author thinks that Americas debt would be a protective factor in preventing a conflict with China. The coming state-of-affairs for Australia will be one surviving the numerous upcoming protracted and friction-filled escalations and the ever-greater political and military demands China will inevitably make. For example, the ADF can ensure command superiority by protecting its own communications, command, control, computers, intelligence and interoperability (C2I4) structures, systems and networks from hostile disruptive operations, while denying an adversary the ability to utilise theirs. America, as a standalone country comprised at this time, 4.6% of the worlds population. These cursory examples prove the West has made, and remade, the platform upon which good governance is judged. These are clear examples of preponderance and to believe China is not on a similar pathway modelled on British and American history is to deliberately ignore the evidence. We pay our respect to Elders past and present and extend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. A significant part of the reason the rise of China, and the subsequent actions of the PRC government have become so chilling, and the reason the invasion word was used by Senator Lambie, is twofold. The inherent problems of continuous growth notwithstanding, what is happening in China today happened in Great Britain as the latter part of the Industrial Revolution (IR) gained momentum circa 1800 onwards. Ill give a dollar to anyone who actually read all that. Tensions between Australia and its biggest trading partner, China, drastically deteriorated last year when Prime Minister Scott Morrison called for an independent inquiry into the origins of. On the other hand, China deploys a comprehensive capability to engage in protracted offensive cyber operations against its adversaries. It's a position intended to ensure Australia's voice is heard in US halls of power, policy making and strategic thought. Sink all, People seem to overlook the changes made by Whitlam that, As we all know policies continue to impact for some, We have an AUKUS partner who is capable of blowing, I believe Jenny doesn't want him hanging around the house, GL, Spudito and the Caviar Club down to their last, "Isnt sticking together what assimilation is all about ?" As for Jacqui Lambie how could anyone believe her statements or take them too seriously shes a very loose cannon, and I wouldnt be surprised if the PUP somehow bids her goodbye in the not too distant future. The importance of outposts and the enhanced capabilities they offer can be seen through Britain in the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas, the US in Guam, Diego Garcia and the United Arab Emirates. Don't miss a thing! By Alan Dupont. Finally, the PLA seriously lacks operational combat experience, including in managing expeditionary operations. CMMC, I fully agree with your summation,perfect.Could not have put it clearer myself. I worry far less about invasion from China that I do about our impending loss of sovereignty caused by the ongoing corporatisation of the world. The power generation and water desalination plant, together with the bunker fuel capacity, provide the necessary logistics to provide a large ground force equipped with heavy equipment, he adds. Jacqui Lambie warns that a Chinese invasion of Australia is a frightening possibility. There is an accommodation that will need to be given over to China and a significant point to focus upon is to observe an historical element, and to realize within it lies a chilling and changing demographic. Your email address will not be published. They just borrow from a world voracious for dollars. It is safe to assume that in the event of a large-scale invasion of mainland Australia, the ADFs response capacity would be overstretched beyond any reasonable expectation of waging effective defensive operations. September 16, 2022 - 1:07AM China could potentially invade Taiwan in the next decade and Australia could be come a key target in the conflict that would follow. In fact it seems to misfire all over the place jumps back and forth in history . The point for Australians to understand is it is a WWII-based belief to assume that the US will come to Australias aid immediately, or as a follow-up to any Chinese show of force. Included in demanding of good governance from others there has been an acceptance of appalling behaviours from the West per se in favouring those that have served the needs of the West: Singapore and Saudi Arabia being leading examples of this phenomenon. Simply unbelievable that our parliament is now dominated by self serving [insert adjective]. There ya go. This is especially daunting for Taiwan, as it is unclear whether it can get help from anyone else if, or when, the time comes. Hence, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent. The island of about 25 million people, backed by the US and Japan, broke away from the mainland in 1949 when the losers of its civil war fled Mao Zedong's brutal communist regime. As the middle-classes of China begin to demand their perceived and/or actual rights, the PRC government will have to succumb to their demands, if only for enhanced domestic stability. The maximum upload file size: 2 MB. Their is a greater chance of Having a War with Japan again then ever having one with China. Youll like it even more knowing that your donation will help us to keep up the good fight. November 9, 2021, 6:22 AM. There is however, more to all of these events in terms of them being simply categorized as overt acts of violence that have a focused outcome namely territorial acquisition through force and it is within this spectrum that Senator Lambie alludes to, that can be given a perspective. On the other side of the ledger we have people who deride any concerns as alarmist, the fish bowl syndrome. Peace is said to be Wars opposite and everwhile the arming for war denies peace any opportunity of reality except in the mind of man. Note: Dr Alexey Muraviev isAssociate Professor of National Security and Strategic Studies at Curtin University. Image: Li Gang/Xinhua via Getty Images. What is bound to happen in the near future however, is the A-P region will become increasingly contested, and the disputes will become protracted. [12] This illustrates the US is keen to keep one step ahead of China in the region. This in turn has allowed the US to build a global military empire, a cradle-to-grave entitlement system, and a credit-based consumer culture, without having to worry about where to find the funds. The Royal Australian Navy ship HMAS Parramatta. In doing so it is important to differentiate an attack from an offensive strike. It is at this point that the historical element as well as the dangers for other actors particularly Australia in the A-P region and the invasion scenario to which Lambie alludes can be introduced. Just $5 a month. particularly June Bullivant. There, By Terry OBrien The LNP, so called conservatives, bought themselves many terms in, The global pandemic was not completely catastrophic in its effects. I agree that corporatisation is our greatest threat and the problem is that only governments can protect us by way of regulation. Even if an invasion of mainland Australia is a remote possibility, displaying an enhanced capacity to defend the mainland is an effective deterrent in its own right. The schemata upon which the West has developed its societal modality is one of a thriving and burgeoning middle-class, and this has been encouraged in other societies by the West in order for the West to meet its own needs, and in doing this the West has had other societies contribute to its progress. Chuck in a few bucks and see just how far it goes! Many are asking what lessons China is drawing from Russia's invasion of Ukraine for its own plans to bring Taiwan to heel. Chinas Per-Capita GDP has Led to a Drastic Reduction in Poverty., http://www.gallup.com/poll/166565/one-five-worldwide-living-extreme-poverty.aspx, [12] Jemima Garrett and staff. Australia must be willing to invade the Solomon Islands and topple its government if that's what is necessary to stop a proposed security pact between China and the Pacific nation going ahead . However, the relevant issue is invasions gain results which inevitably have to be repelled, defused or accepted. Military Invasion alert after China crosses line. Strategic defence expert Ron Huisken labelled it sensational nonsense and rather tacky scaremongering. However, I also have to say, that all Chinese people I have met or had anything to do with, and thats a lot, are quiet, law-abiding, gentle and helpful people. The implications for Australia beyond 2025 onwards are not as assured and this will be due to the fact that as China continues to rise the US will continue to decline and therefore, the US will have become a significantly lesser threat. The Islands that Japan is arguing over were residue of second world war negotiations in which the pre-war possessions should eventually return to China. Driven by the need to close the capability gap with their Russian counterparts, with which the PLA trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, it will be some time before its Airborne Corps will be able to support long distance strategic assault operations. The short-tempered outburst by Senator Palmer on the Australian Broadcasting Corporation Q&A program, to be sure was just that, an outburst. [5] Andrew Browne. The four major challenges Australia faces in 2022 There are major challenges the world will have to face this year over and above COVID-19, the first being the management of the rise of China. How are we going to survive if we deliberately ignore threats for fear of offending someone? Remember our diplomats are not representative of our government and as career bureaucrats have a much more subtle take on diplomacy and very personal cntacts with its leaders. Britain robustly expanded beyond its own borders often usurping other nation-states, frequently through violence and colonisation in order to gain what it needed. All of the its fighting elements are in the process of qualitative force transformations, which would continue to provide the ADFs operators with the technological edge. As part of national preparedness response options at strategic, operational and tactical levels need to be considered. He questionedwhatthey would do after landing in Pilbara. You can donate through PayPal or credit card via the button below, or donate via bank transfer: Your email address will not be published. Invasions by the Soviets into Chechnya, the United States of America (US) into Iraq, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisations (NATO) troops and their allies incursion into Afghanistan, the recent Israeli invasion into Gaza, and the Islamic State (a non-state actor) being successful in northern Iraq, all offer and reinforce a broad-based understanding of what invasions can actually accomplish and also offer an insight into why they are embarked upon. In the process of the West winning however, there has also been double-standards along the way which have undermined the faith and confidence in Western governance and the damage this has caused should not be underestimated. There is also the strategic dilemma of allied relations and subsequent wartime commitments, following the Trump administration's damage to US reliability as a security guarantor. Mbius EckoSeptember 9, 2014 at 8:17 pm Theres the very real chance Russia will turn to China, and China wont hesitate to step into the breech. From what I have heard from non-Anglo News Sources, this may already be the case. Analysts say the threat of China on Australia's doorstop isn't about invasion; it's about much more immediate short-term concerns, such as Beijing improving intelligence gathering and monitoring. [7] See Francis Fukuyama. I must admit I skimmed this piece. Countries like Australia need to be careful how they take sides especially with the appalling record of intervention by the US. Just remember how many millions of Chines were murdered by the Japanese and the picture becomes clearer. Try again. Think on this I heard on ABC Radio. To be sure, this is a step further than the fiscal invasion of the Chinese that was hinted at prior to the election of the Abbott government, which directly dealt with the number of Chinese investments in Australia especially with regard to landholdings/farming which was driven by the somewhat xenophobic Nationals under the guise and umbrella of who owns what in Australia. Free market squabbling aside, and the prejudices inherent within this argument about the marketplace, the issue that needs to be examined is whether there is a modicum of truth in what Lambie has stated. According to Prof Blaxland, the old truths that have kept Australia safe from invasion - except for the colonial project beginning in 1788 - are still in play. Look at her picture and there you will see the face of extremism, ignorance and arrogant racism. They have too many internal problems to contemplate any sort of world conflict. Firstly, China has insufficient capacity to wage long distance assault operations. Similarly, the PLAs Airborne Corps lack air lift capacity for long distance air assault operations. Given the absence of layered air defence capability (AD) in the ADFs order of battle, including long-range AD systems, in theory it can wage long-range missile strikes against our key land targets (defence installations, strategic surveillance communication facilities, possibly large population centres), even though it may risk escalation to an open confrontation with the United States. Francis Fukuyama would deem the collapse of communism to be the end of history,[7] which translates in simpler terms, to liberal-democracy as a form of government winning against communism. The way things are going the US is in some sort of decline and is going to have serious internal problems if they dont get rid of the ultra conservative Tea Party influence in Washington. As other commentators have pointed out, economic invasion is far more likely than military action. This time has taken two decades and it is now in that place, or in simpler terms, China is now a major actor on the world stage and moreover, one that is prepared to back its position/s up with military force if need be. [2] Hugh White. Signed sealed and yet to deliver. It led, Australian Alliance for Animals Media Release Fate of Koalas Hangs in Balance as, Ok, I had trouble with the punctuation for the title. One thing is for sure, China does not need to invade Australia. Agree with all comments . This force, supported by elements of the RAAF and the RAN, could defend a specific sector or two of the Australian mainland, providing that other operational commitments (for example, garrison duties in major cities and coastline patrol) are reduced to a minimum. Nations that acceded to British demands, either as a protectorate that was accorded all of the security and safety Britain could muster or, alternately, Britain used force. Free registration to the ADM Headlines email newsletter: Stay informed with the latest in the business of defence. It is unlikely that the PLA will risk using its ageing strategic bomber force as a long-range offensive asset against Australia. "China need not attempt to invade Australia to subdue it; it may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000-tonne "maritime safety" vessels, and . Their own currencies gain prestige, giving their governments more political and military muscle. Something went wrong, please try again later. In that effort, China "really got a bloody nose, it was not a very successful operation," director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States Bonnie Glaser said. If a more solid outcome and strategic footprint air- and sea-bases in Indonesia is enabled by the PRC beyond the current military outposts of Pakistan and Myanmar the danger/s for Australia exponentially increase and an invasion would be more likely. These past weeks have seen Clive Palmer MP berate the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) government and other (Chinese) that have had business dealings with him. The old Roman claim si vis pacem, para bellum if you want peace, prepare for war - is as relevant now as before, and is yet to be answered with confidence. What the hell have we done? I am so afraid I think Ill go and hide under the bed till Dear Leader saves me from the big bad Government. Here is an article by Chomsky that should open a few eyes. Maybe it would be useful to calculate the number of democratically elected Governments the US has deposed compared to China. Over 90 per cent of the countrys population is spread along coastal areas, with a majority concentrated in a number of urban hubs located on the Pacific, Southern and Indian Ocean sides of the country. China knows America is getting weaker by the day, owns most of the US debt and will demand America to pay back the debt or China will cripple America economically (no more cheap loans). A new survey released Tuesday by the Lowy Institute, a foreign policy research group, found only a slim majority of Australians supported military action in the event of a Chinese invasion of . Note that preparation is NOT the same as Shannon Brandao on LinkedIn: U.S., UK and Australia carry out China-focused air drills The question is, how much of this time Australian defence planners have factored in, and whether the question of replenishment depends largely on uninterrupted overseas supply or a mixed solution involving domestic sustainment capacity. Everyone is doing it hard at present. When it comes to assessing a countrys fighting potential on a comparative basis, a number of major contributing factors needs to be taken into account. Taiwanese . But the US has strategic energy interests in Australia so perhaps they will not abandon us or sell us out with their own self interests are at stake. No Australian Government can or could begin this journey to peace as all the present shitstems operations are to fuel war cause war is big business. In the context of the Chinese hypothetical invasion threat, two problem factors can be identified: the fighting force and the question of endurance. The time of this dominance is coming to an end, as China is on the rise. China must be offered a bigger role in the Asia-Pacific. The Age, Melbourne: Fairfax Publishing Ltd, 10 June, 2014, 16. Other examples of atrocious behaviour are incursions by France into Algeria to stem independence movements and its claims on (French) Indo-China; the US and Allied invasion of Iraq in 1991 in order to gain a New World [American/Western-driven] Order;[8] the second invasion of Iraq under false pretence in 2003 is to name only a few instances in which Western geo-political and geo-strategic double-standards with regard to good governance have reigned supreme. [11] An historical comparison can be made here which befits the Wests pattern, and in doing so offers the growth of China another perspective and the inherent dangers for the West. Geography still plays a very important part in war. The World Economy. But its most chilling claim is around a small airport built in West Australias remote northwest. Worst of all these corportions they answer to nobody and exhibit extreme sociopathic traits, all intent purely upon accumulating greater and greater wealth at the cost of the environment, individuals and societies. [3] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-26/an-new-chinese-map-gives-greater-play-to-south-china-sea-claims/5550914 Australia Network News, 26 June, 2014. Recently the Obama administration has gone to great lengths to reassure Australia it is committed to keeping a geo-strategic and political presence in the region with a recent visit by Secretary of State Kerry and a reiteration of wanting to rebalance Asia. Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. Jacqui Lambie!! China has been quick to capitalise on this with gaining deeper connections with Indonesia. AN AIRSTRIP in the arid Australian desert could be used for a full-scale invasion from China. Moreover, China has continued to exercise its perceived regional rights with relative impunity; and the PRC recently rejected a US proposal to decrease tensions over the disputed territories,[14] and these are further signs the days of absolute control for the US are over. The Amnesia Express had a good line in a lyric of a song about defining the difference of Peace to the present state of readiness to war. A war . Sign up to the Daily Star's newsletter. Gosh and golly. [10] Herein lies the problem that Australia in the first instance and the Western world in the second, will have to face: if China is not offered a more prominent of rightful place in the schemata of world strategies/politics a massive disruption will occur as China will react to any moves by other nation-states to retard its progress. New York: Free Press, 1992. On the other hand, China deploys a comprehensive capability to engage in protracted offensive cyber operations against its adversaries. 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